10K Goal

Two days ago I did a 5K.  I'm pretty happy with my time, considering I really haven't trained at all for running a 5K in many years.  Just 3 days later, I'll be doing a 10K.  Why? I'm feeling good, and I want to see where my 10K pace is.  My fitness is still pretty solid as I recover from Kona.  It's been seven weeks, and I've had my ups and downs.  On Thursday, I didn't really set any time goals, and I never looked at my pace during the race.  Tomorrow, I'll change that up.  I'll set some pace goals and try to focus on holding them.  How do I set these pacing goals?  A few months ago I did a half marathon on the same course as the 10K.  That day, in the midst of Ironman training, I actually ran seven miles before the half marathon as my "warm-up."  I actually did a 10K at ~8:40 pace in the middle of what was to be a 20 mile run.  That tells me that I can do a 10K at a faster pace than that.  The first two miles of my 5K were at 7:17 and 7:35 pace.  I certainly don't want to go out that fast at the beginning of a 10K.  So, what will I do?

First thing to think about is the warm-up.  Warm ups are an absolute necessity for a running race, otherwise you start the race "cold."  Since it will be cold out, warming up will be even more important.  The 10K starts at 8:15 am, so I'll need to get there around 7:30 am if I'm planning to do a 3 mile warm up, which is the most appropriate amount of warming up.  That gives me time to do the first mile really slow, the second mile comfortably, and the third mile with some short fast efforts thrown in to get my lactate system engaged.  That also means I need to leave my house by 7:15 am.  First part of planning done.

After the warm up, it's actually a matter of trying to minimize the time between warming up and starting the race.  That shouldn't be too hard to figure out once I get there.  The course is relatively flat, though it's very slightly uphill for the first half, and then slightly downhill for the second half.  That really shouldn't impact my pacing, in fact, it might help me a bit since the last few miles will be slightly downhill.  Runner's World has a race predictor.  Based on my 5K time three days ago, my 10K pace should be 7:55.  If I'm actually capable, which I think I am, of having run 23:00 for my 5K on a flatter course, my predicted pace would be 7:43.  That appeals to me, because my goal time would be 48:00.  On the other hand, just to be safe, I can start the first couple of miles slightly slower and see how I feel.  There I have it.  I can start the first couple of miles at 7:50 pace, and see how I feel.  If I feel good, I can pick up my pace and keep it closer to 7:45 for the next few miles.  The last mile is always a "guts only" mile anyway.  Whatever I have left, it will be what it is.  I'll be quite happy with a 10K under 50 minutes, but would love to get close to that 48 minute mark.  We'll see what happens!