Is it the Economy, Stupid?

There has long been a political adage that the only thing that matters in a Presidential election is the economy.  If the economy is going well, the people will vote to maintain the status quo, because at the end of the day, the economy is all that matters to people.  There's a lot of truth to this concept, as there should be.  At the end of the day, what do most of us care about? Our own lives.  The question then should be, how do we measure the economy?  What metrics truly represent whether the average person is happy with their economic situation?  Unemployment rates have long been a staple measure of the strength of our economy.  Inflation, or rather, a lack of inflation, has been another measure.

Here we are, in the longest economic expansion, from a jobs perspective, in the history of the country. Lest we forget, this economy began under President Obama.  It has continued under President Trump.  Are both of them responsible? Are neither of them responsible?  One might argue that a common theme for the past ten years has been gridlock in Washington.  There was greater regulation under Obama, and less regulation under Trump.  Most of the economic indicators that Trump touts began an upward climb during President Obama's tenure.  Under President Obama, what were Republicans most concerned about? The Federal Deficit.  What was Trump most concerned about? The Trade Deficit.  Ironically, these are the only major economic indicators that have gotten worse under Trump.  Go figure.

What about the stock market?  Trump and his supporters often tout the fact that the stock market is at an all time high.  I'm not sure what this represents since I consider the stock market akin to gambling for the average person. The average American is not getting major benefit from the stock market.  Which begs the real question.  What does the average American feel about the economy?  I often think about what the average person thinks about their life.  One of my favorite pastimes is to ask taxi (or Uber) drivers who come from foreign countries what they think about the United States.  It still appears to me that most people in the world would rather live in the United States if given the opportunity.  Which actually brings us to the immigration question.  If our unemployment rate is at an all-time low, why shouldn't we want to supplement our workforce with immigrants?

What about consumer confidence?  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index peaked during the Clinton Presidency, bottomed out during the Great Recession, only to finally come back to George W. Bush levels towards the end of the Obama Presidency, and it's pretty much held steady since.  Consumer Sentiment has clearly been comfortable with the Trump Presidency.  They were also comfortable with the Obama Presidency.  Fascinating.  Of course, Consumer Sentiment was fine during the George W. Bush years, until the bottom dropped out.  Which begs the question regarding the Federal and Trade Deficits.  Do those measures matter?  Does gridlock matter?  Does unemployment matter?  Does the stock market matter?  Does deregulation matter?  Does it matter who is in the White House?

Why don't the Democrats talk more about the economic boom of the Clinton Presidency?  It was the last time that the Federal government ran a surplus.  Consumer Sentiment hit an all time high.  Yet, the Republicans impeached the President overseeing this economic boon because he supposedly lied about having sex with a White House intern.  Is it the economy, stupid?

360 Degree Training Change

For the past decade, my run workouts were focused on how long I could run.  Speed was an afterthought.  Yesterday, that changed.  My run workout yesterday, while it did include a half mile warm up jog, was essentially four 50m sprints.  What a difference!  Ironically, as I look up the impact of such workouts, I'm finding that there are distinct metabolic and physiological benefits to short, hard running workouts.  Of course, my goal is to run my fastest 5K in years.  You can't run 5K fast if you can't run a fast mile or 400m, and so on and so forth down the line.

My workout yesterday started with a warm up.  My warm up consisted of 20 push ups, 20 air squats, 20 hip raises, 20 lunges and a wall sit.  I then went ahead and jogged a half a mile and followed that with some short bounds, high knees and butt kicks.  My first two 50m sprints weren't truly sprints, as I wanted to warm up into this new approach.  They were just fast flying 50's.  My first one was done at ~6:30/mile pace, close to how I started my 10K last weekend.  A few minutes of walking and I did my next one at ~6:00/mile pace.  A few more minutes of walking and it was time to do my main set, which was only going to be two sprints.

For these sprints, I start out with about 20m of gradually getting up to speed and then fly into the 50m as fast as I can go, not thinking about my form, but also trying not to be too crazy or violent with my running form.  Think smooth, but fast and hard.  Bingo!  My first 50m effort was done in just under 10", and my garmin says that my pace was 4:54/mile.  Sounds about right.  I'm not sure I've been at this speed for any distance in quite some time.  I then took 6 minutes to recovery, just walking comfortably, before doing my second sprint.  This one was slightly faster, and the pace shown was 4:51/mile.  Of note, as I hit my last stride, I did feel a little tightness in my right "glute," which may in fact, have been my right hamstring insertion.  This is a spot that I triggered a couple of years ago when I tried to do something similar.

I had already decided to only do two full out sprints, so I was done.  If I'd meant to do more, I would have been done.  I must pay close attention to my body so as not to injure myself in this new process. Fortunately, as the day went on, the tightness in the right side of my butt gradually dissipated.  I'll be good to do this again next week.  Coming up before that will be short, fast, 100m hill repeats.  Hills sprints are another great way to build speed and strength.

My run volume for a week of this type of training will generally not exceed 10 miles of running.  In fact, it may be much less, depending on what I choose to do in a week and whether I do much in the way of running for a warm up.  This is going to be an interesting new journey!

The Impeachment Reality

Yesterday I wrote about why Congress shouldn't impeach Trump. Today, I'll write about why they should. On July 25th, the President had a conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky. I'm going to quote directly from the White House transcript (obtained from the White House website):  "Germany does almost nothing for you.  All they do is talk and I think it's something that you should really ask them about.  When I was speaking to Angela Merkel she talks Ukraine, but she doesn't do anything."  While this is not an impeachable offense, I find it incredibly distasteful that the Trump is casting aspersions about an important ally to another head of state.  This goes against everything that we should stand for as a country.  

"I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike... I guess you have one of your wealthy people... The server, they say Ukraine has it."  Again, why Trump is wasting his time asking a foreign country to investigate an American company based on rumors is just unprofessional, again, not impeachable.

"The former ambassador from the United States, the woman, was bad news and the people she was dealing with in the Ukraine were bad news so I just want to let you know that."  Again, questioning our own diplomat with a foreign country is unprofessional.  Also, not impeachable.

"The other thing, There's a lot of talk about Biden's son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it... It sounds horrible to me."  This is where things get interesting.  Trump is clearly targeting a political opponent and asking a foreign government to investigate him.  This does get into potentially impeachable conduct.  The President of the United States should not be asking a foreign government to investigate a political opponent.  It's wrong on many levels.  

As some of the other witnesses ultimately testified, it definitely appears that the President asked the Ukrainian leader to announce an investigation into the Biden's.  It also appears that he made military aid dependent on this announcement.  

Here's the deal.  If this were a one off, and Trump acknowledged that he had overstepped his bounds, I agree that this might not rise to the level of impeachment.  However, this behavior is quite consistent with a pattern that Trump has.  Furthermore, Trump clearly believes that he is above the law (his 5th Avenue shooting remark is only one of many statements that reflect this).  

The Democrats are well within their rights to impeach Trump.  The Republicans are well within their rights to believe that he shouldn't be impeached and the Senate will make the ultimate determination on whether to convict or not.  The American people will ultimately be the judges during the next election.  That is what American is all about.

Impeachment Hearing Musings

It struck me today that people who voted for Donald Trump, or most of those that support him today, believe that he hasn't done anything impeachable.  Even the Republican's legal scholar in todays hearings doesn't like Trump, but somehow buys into the fact that Trump is just, well, Trump.  That's the problem.  One of the law professors today made an inappropriate joke that involved Trumps son.  She ultimately apologized.  Those on the right will skewer her for her joke.  Those on the left will ask her to apologize, not wanting to seem insensitive!  There is a definite double standard surrounding Donald Trump.  He can say inappropriate things.  He can do inappropriate things.  No one takes him seriously.  That is, none of his supporters take these things seriously.  Anyone else who would say these things or act this way, well that's another story.  But Trump gets to be Trump.  Maybe that's where the Republicans are right.  Forget about impeachment, we have an election in 11 months.  Let the voters decide.  They decided 3 years ago, and this is the guy we have.  We have an electoral college system that Democrats don't like at the present moment, and Trump will never have a majority of Americans vote for him for President, but may very well win again.  That's the will of the American electoral system, its voters and our election process.

Is Trump trying to influence the next election?  Absolutely!  Again, his supporters think that's ok.  They think that he knows how to fight other politicians better than anyone ever has before him.  By being more corrupt and more despicable than all of them combined (in my opinion, sorry for the transgression).  But there are a lot of angry voters who are mad as hell and don't want to take business as usual anymore.  Trump is their answer to that.  And not only don't they care how he gets it done, they'll support anything that he does.

In many ways, I have to wonder if this is just what our political process has become, and whether this is the beginning of the end of extreme partisan politics.  I hope so.  Unfortunately, it always hurts when you rip off the bandaid.  Laying bare the lowest elements of our political system may be the greatest challenge to face our country.  Enough voters agree with, or will put up with, Donald Trump to have allowed him to become President.  They certainly disagree with impeachment and will feel like the rest of America is taking away their decision as voters.

I can't believe it, but I just made a case for the Democrats not to vote to impeach Trump.  Perhaps they need to go out and get a dozen Trump supporters and have them testify.  Maybe only then will they realize that impeachment is against the will of those who voted Trump into office.  This is the behavior they voted for.  It sounds screwy to say that, but it's clearly true.  Are we supposed to impeach 40% of the electorate?  That can't have a positive outcome.

I think that the Democrats need to rethink their approach.  Why not censure Trump for what he did?  Unfortunately, in todays partisan political world, that won't get a single Republican vote.  But maybe?

A Completely Different Training Approach

I got my marching orders today from my coach.  In reality, I chose them, but he started explaining what I have laying ahead of me.  Wow! What a difference from Ironman training!  The fact that I want to focus on my 5K and 10K times is essentially the polar opposite of long distance endurance training.  Which makes sense.  It also makes sense for me at this point in my life.  I have set some goals, but, in fact, I have no idea how this will turn out.  What I do know is that I want to be healthy.  I have a longstanding tendency to overdo things that I get into.  In life and work, this has its advantages, but in physical training, all it really does is set me up for injury.  That is not what I want to do.

My three main run workouts every week are as follows:  First, a workout with short (initially 10 seconds, ultimately working up to ~40 seconds) essentially all-out sprints, followed by full recovery, which means several minutes!  Initially, I'll only do two of these.  That's pretty much the complete opposite of running for 3 hours.  Of course, I'll be warming up and cooling down.  My second workout is more normal.  It's a 6-7 mile run where I warm up for 3 miles and run fairly hard for 3 miles.  Finally, hill repeats, running fast uphill for up to 100 meters.  That's it!

My goal is to work on my top end speed, without which, there can be no fast 5K time.  It makes sense.  Obviously, this is only the beginning of the process.  However, even the latter parts of my training this coming year will not include lots of slow running volume, which is completely different from what I'll be doing.  I'm excited to see what my body can learn at the age of 60.  I'm reminded of someone I met 25 years ago who ran his first sub-3 hour marathon at the age of 60.  Now, I'm not thinking about my marathon times, that would have me going in the other direction!

Kona Reprise

I watched NBC's coverage of the Ironman World Championship in Kona today.  I have to admit various emotions. First, I'm reminded how special Kona is, and how much Ironman means to me.  Watching the professional race, as well as the age group athletes compete on the Ironman world's greatest stage, brought back a lot of memories.  First, there's no question but that the swim conditions were more challenging than normal.  Watching the swells at the start of the race on television made me realize how much movement there was in the water, and how I really didn't pay attention to it an just focused on my swim.  While it would have been nice to feel better on this special day, I will always be proud of how much I ignored how I felt, lived in the moment and appreciated every moment of the day.  I was also reminded of the fact that I actually swam in a group for half of the swim, which was truly in the spirit of Kona.  Watching the professionals weaving on the bike course was a reminder of the ferocious winds that we had to deal with.  I ran the first 12 miles of the run in sunlight, before completing the run in the dark, so it was nice watching the professionals race while the sun was still out.

While watching Kona gave me some feelings about doing an Ironman again, I also feel ready to get away from the Ironman grind.  I've enjoyed the 5K and 10K races that I've done in the past few days. I've enjoyed not having to bike and swim.  I'm not doing La Quinta in one week, and I won't be doing Oceanside in April, choosing today to participate in the Ragnar Relay with my favorite team!  I want to have fun.  I imagine that I might have some urges to get back in the Ironman game over time.  It's kind of hard to get away from this addictive sport.  But I can replace those feelings with the endorphins I get from running.

Kona will always have great meaning to me.  It was a lifetime achievement, of which I'll always be proud.  But the Ironman life also takes a significant toll.  Focusing on shorter run distances will be good for me both mentally and physiologically. And, it give me something to focus on this coming year!

2020 5K and 10K Goals

Today, just three days after running a 5K, I ran a 10K.  I wrote about my race plan yesterday, and I tried to execute it today.  My 2.5 mile warm up went perfectly, with the first mile starting off at over 10 minute per mile pace, but by the time I finished, had comfortably run the mile in 9:12. I picked up the pace and effort gradually over the second mile and finished it in 8:12, and I felt good. I threw in a couple of short strides at about 6:30 pace.  I then got in one last restroom break and got to the start line with several minutes to spare.  I went out the front with a 65 year old guy who proceeding to gap me pretty quickly.  Of note, he won the 10K, with a time of 42:30.

The first two miles of the race were relatively flat, and I went out a little too fast, but throttled it down and backed off until I hit the first mile marker in 7:31.  I backed off during the second mile, and my breathing was still around every fourth step, though my legs were already fighting me a bit.  I hit the second mile in 7:58.  At this point, I figured that I'd modulated my effort enough and tried to maintain as best I could that I could keep close to my goal pace.  The third mile was slightly uphill and it was definitely tougher, but I resisted the temptation to back off.  I maintained a hard breathing effort of around every 3rd step to every 4th step and finished the third mile in 8:28.  During the next mile, I hit the turnaround and was hoping topic up my pace on the slight downhill sections that followed. Mile 4 came to 8:18 despite my effort to go faster.  My hamstrings were feeling tight an my legs weren't very cooperative at this point.  Still, I kept pushing, and my breathing for the next mile was every 3rd step, when I hit the end of Mile 5, I'd managed an 8:11 mile.  I believe that I was pushing as hard as I could.  I continued to push the last mile, breathing every 3rd step, but my legs really wouldn't cooperate and I only managed 8:32 for mile 6, despite it being slightly downhill.  The proof in the pudding was the final two tenths of a mile, where I couldn't go much faster than 8 minute per mile pace, despite giving it everything that I had.  I crossed the finish line in 50:53, about a minute slower than I'd expected, and two minutes slower than the Daniel's race calculator would have predicted from my 5K, but considering that I'd done this 10K just 3 days later, I'm good with.

So, what are my goals for 2020.  I'm a goal oriented person, and while I won't completely hold myself to these goals, I'd like to have a target this coming year.  I'd like to get my 5K time below 22 minutes, and as close to 21 minutes as humanly possible (if it is possible).  The 10K should follow naturally, as I have a considerable endurance base with which to realistically base my 10K time off of my 5K time.  A 21:50 5K would translate to a 45:16 10K.  Those are my goals.  It also translates to a 6:25 mile.   I have my starting point, now it's time to work with my coach to make these happen!

On a fun note, in an albeit small group of 12 men today, I was 3rd overall amongst the men.  The 60 year olds ruled, with a 65 year old finishing first and me finishing 3rd.  It's always fun to come home with overall and age group medals, no matter how many people are in the race!