Is it the Economy, Stupid?

There has long been a political adage that the only thing that matters in a Presidential election is the economy.  If the economy is going well, the people will vote to maintain the status quo, because at the end of the day, the economy is all that matters to people.  There's a lot of truth to this concept, as there should be.  At the end of the day, what do most of us care about? Our own lives.  The question then should be, how do we measure the economy?  What metrics truly represent whether the average person is happy with their economic situation?  Unemployment rates have long been a staple measure of the strength of our economy.  Inflation, or rather, a lack of inflation, has been another measure.

Here we are, in the longest economic expansion, from a jobs perspective, in the history of the country. Lest we forget, this economy began under President Obama.  It has continued under President Trump.  Are both of them responsible? Are neither of them responsible?  One might argue that a common theme for the past ten years has been gridlock in Washington.  There was greater regulation under Obama, and less regulation under Trump.  Most of the economic indicators that Trump touts began an upward climb during President Obama's tenure.  Under President Obama, what were Republicans most concerned about? The Federal Deficit.  What was Trump most concerned about? The Trade Deficit.  Ironically, these are the only major economic indicators that have gotten worse under Trump.  Go figure.

What about the stock market?  Trump and his supporters often tout the fact that the stock market is at an all time high.  I'm not sure what this represents since I consider the stock market akin to gambling for the average person. The average American is not getting major benefit from the stock market.  Which begs the real question.  What does the average American feel about the economy?  I often think about what the average person thinks about their life.  One of my favorite pastimes is to ask taxi (or Uber) drivers who come from foreign countries what they think about the United States.  It still appears to me that most people in the world would rather live in the United States if given the opportunity.  Which actually brings us to the immigration question.  If our unemployment rate is at an all-time low, why shouldn't we want to supplement our workforce with immigrants?

What about consumer confidence?  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index peaked during the Clinton Presidency, bottomed out during the Great Recession, only to finally come back to George W. Bush levels towards the end of the Obama Presidency, and it's pretty much held steady since.  Consumer Sentiment has clearly been comfortable with the Trump Presidency.  They were also comfortable with the Obama Presidency.  Fascinating.  Of course, Consumer Sentiment was fine during the George W. Bush years, until the bottom dropped out.  Which begs the question regarding the Federal and Trade Deficits.  Do those measures matter?  Does gridlock matter?  Does unemployment matter?  Does the stock market matter?  Does deregulation matter?  Does it matter who is in the White House?

Why don't the Democrats talk more about the economic boom of the Clinton Presidency?  It was the last time that the Federal government ran a surplus.  Consumer Sentiment hit an all time high.  Yet, the Republicans impeached the President overseeing this economic boon because he supposedly lied about having sex with a White House intern.  Is it the economy, stupid?