I decided to rest today. Better to help my rib fully heal and the rest of my body to recover from this last week than to "squeeze in" a training session. It also gives me a chance to start visualizing next weekends race.
I often say that I typically set the bar higher than I can achieve. That goes for racing as well as many of the things that I’ve done in my life. It’s been quite awhile since I set time goals for a race, but I always enjoy doing it, and I figure why not? I almost never achieve my top goals, but I love setting the bar as high as possible. So, it’s time to set some goals for my upcoming 70.3 in Santa Rosa. The pieces of the puzzle have all fallen into place. My training is exactly where I wanted it to be. I’m doing exactly what I’ve wanted to do swimming, biking and running. So, why shouldn’t I get my goals out there, and into my mind, so that I can begin visualizing race day?
My swim has gotten very consistent lately. I’m swimming between 1:45 and 1:50 pace per 100 yds without a wetsuit. Of note, I’m able to swim 100 yards fast without a wetsuit in ~1:19. The other day, in a wetsuit, I swam 100 yards in 1:14. So, let’s give myself the benefit of the doubt and assume that I’ll be able to swim the 1.2 mile swim (2112 yards) in 35 minutes. That would actually put me about where I was several years ago, and I actually think that my swim endurance is better now with similar pacing. If I’m hitting everything on all cylinders (great form, drafting, solid effort), I think that I could do the swim in 32 minutes. So, I’d put the range on my swim time at 32-37 minutes (expected 34 minutes, I have to set that bar just a little higher).
In both of my Ironman’s in Santa Rosa, my first Transition time was 9 minutes. There’s a steep hill that I walked both times. This year, I’m going to run up it. I believe that could ultimately be worth about 2 minutes. Looking at the top guys in my age group in previous years, 7 minutes is a reasonable goal, so I’ll make the range 7-9 minutes (expected 8 minutes).
The bike is interesting. I’ve been looking at some predictive programs, and it looks like we may have a headwind for most of the bike. That certainly will have an impact, but it will also force me to maintain my aero position the whole time. There are two hills that I plan to go hard on. My bike power is as good as it’s been in a few years, and Santa Rosa is my personal best ironman bike split (5:47). I’ve got to believe that I can ride at least 2:45, and depending upon conditions, could get this time down to as fast at 2:35 (if I torch the bike). I would be truly disappointed with anything slower than 2:48. I’ll make my goal range 2:35-2:48 (expected time of 2:42).
The Bike to run transition is supposed to be a bit long, due to the structure of the transition itself. I don’t know how long this transition should take, but based on most half ironman’s that I’ve ever done, I’d say that a 4 minute transition is a reasonable estimate. (expected 4 minutes).
Finally, the run. My run is as good as it’s been in awhile. 9 minute pace on a flat Santa Rosa course is my goal. I’d love to go faster, but don’t really know if that’s possible. I’ll set my expected run time at 1:57. If things go perfectly, and I can truly suffer, perhaps it would be possible for me to go as fast as 1:50. If things don’t go as well as expected, then as slow as 2:04. My goal range is 1:50-2:04 (expected time of 1:57).
Swim-32, 34, 37
T1-7, 8. 9
Bike-2:35, 2:42, 2:48
T2-4
Run-1:50, 1:57, 2:04
5:08, 5:25, 5:42
(In 2017, those times would have made for AG placements of 3, 4, 10)
Now I've got my goal. No matter what, I love numbers and data!
No comments:
Post a Comment